عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
Background and Objective: The complexity and uncertainty of factors affecting the future development of cities and the extent of the range of effective variables from the local to the world level reveals the need for a new approach and thinking in urban planning. The city of Baneh is from the border towns of Kurdistan province, which is difficult due to the complications and uncertainties of decision making for its urban managers. In this study, the variables affecting the future development of the Baneh city are identified using a futuristic approach.
Method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of survey practice. To carry out the research, the factors affecting the future development of the city of Baneh were identified using the environmental monitoring method. At this stage, after reviewing the studies on the future of cities and urban development, a list of factors influencing the future of urban development was identified and further elaborated on a questionnaire for 50 elites. Respondents to the questionnaire consisted of three groups of members of the first city council and city managers, two managers of government agencies and three market and private sector activists. After completing and localizing the variables, these factors are analyzed with each other in the framework of the interaction analysis technique using the Mick-Mac software (according to 15 experts).Findings and Results: The research showed that national production, arrivals, tourism arrivals, urban and provincial transportation, and investment are key variables that affect the future development of Baneh. These variables are strategic because of the possibility of manipulation by managers and, on the other hand, their high impact on the system, and should therefore be placed at the heart of the management effort to guide future changes in Baneh.